What comes next
Real events, the consequences published forecasters expect, and what has already been confirmed or revised.
Event · Middle East / Strait of Hormuz · 28 Feb 2026
Military action against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Euro area consumer prices are expected to rise 3.0% in 2026, up from the 1.9% projected in December 2025
Expected: 3.0% for 2026 · ECB/Eurosystem staff · issued 10 Sept 2026 · information cut-off 19 Aug 2026
Key condition: Market-based energy price assumptions as of 19 August 2026; the energy shock is assumed to dissipate gradually
For: Households, businesses and policy watchers in the euro area · by 31 Dec 2026
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Limits of what is known: The figures are the ECB/Eurosystem staff baseline, conditional on market-based energy price assumptions at each cut-off date; they are not a World Pulse model. Scenario values are the author's own illustrations without assigned probabilities. Differences between releases are the author's revisions, not measured causal effects of the event.
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Strait of Hormuz / global shipping routes · 28 Feb 2026
World merchandise trade is expected to grow only 1.9% in 2026 — or 1.4% if energy prices stay high all year
Expected: 1.9% for 2026 · WTO Secretariat · issued 19 Mar 2026
3 scenarios · Version 1 · 16 Sept 2026Open →
Global · 31 Dec 2025
If the conflict stays short and AI-related spending stays strong, world trade could grow up to 2.4% in 2026 instead of the 1.9% baseline
Expected: 1.9% for 2026 · WTO Secretariat · issued 19 Mar 2026
2 scenarios · Version 1 · 16 Sept 2026Open →
What is shown here, and what is not
Every expected number belongs to a named author and release (ECB staff, WTO Secretariat) with its publication date and information cut-off. World Pulse adds the traceable link between the event, the expectation, its conditions, the sources and every later revision or outcome — it does not add a forecast of its own.
Differences between releases are revisions, not measured effects of the event. Scenario values are the author's conditional paths, not probabilities. Outcomes are compared with the first published value of the named outcome source in the same units.
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