Event · Strait of Hormuz / global shipping routes · 28 Feb 2026
After the 28 February 2026 escalation in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from 138 commercial vessels per day to almost zero, over 40,000 flights were cancelled and transport and insurance costs rose. Energy prices surged, and the WTO now expects slower world trade growth in 2026.
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The WTO Secretariat's March 2026 baseline puts merchandise trade volume growth at 1.9% in 2026 after 4.6% in 2025. If crude oil and LNG prices remain elevated throughout 2026, it expects 1.4%, with regions dependent on energy imports losing up to 1.0 percentage point.
For whom: Energy- and food-importing economies, European exporters, shipping and logistics
World · % · Calendar year 2026, until 31 Dec 2026
1.9% for 2026 · Author: WTO Secretariat · Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026 · issued 19 Mar 2026 · cut-off not stated by the author
Limits of what is known: The figures are the WTO Secretariat's own baseline and scenarios from the 19 March 2026 Global Trade Outlook; the WTO does not publish an information cut-off date. Scenario values are the author's and carry no probabilities. The September 2026 barometer reading is an observation, not a revision of the forecast. World Pulse adds no model of its own.
Select a link to see who is affected, the delay and what could break the chain.
Conditional paths published by the author. The difference is shown against the baseline, in the same unit.
Choosing a group changes only the explanation, not the forecast.
Higher fuel costs and disrupted fertilizer supply raise cost pressures on consumers and businesses, with spillovers for food security; direction only, magnitude varies by country.
7 Oct 20250.5% for 2026
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, October 2025 update · cut-off not stated by the author
19 Mar 20261.9% for 2026current
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026 · cut-off not stated by the author
Reason not established
Outcome pending — data for 2026 has not been published yet
Outcome rule: Compare each forecast with the WTO Secretariat's own first published estimate of world merchandise trade volume growth for the same period in the next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics release that reports it (for 2026: expected spring 2027), same geography (world) and unit (% y/y, volume). Error = observed − forecast in percentage points. Later WTO revisions become new observations with vintage 'revised'. Rule abs-diff-v1. The 2025 comparison (October 2025 forecast vs the WTO's March 2026 estimate) shown in version 1 is a retrospective reconstruction prepared on 2026-09-16 (both forecast and outcome were already public), not a pre-registered check; the basis of every comparison (registered check vs retrospective reconstruction) is derived mechanically from the archive versions. · abs-diff-v1
Forecasts, observations and versions of this analysis by date. Points are not connected — nothing is known between them.
AI-related goods demand could offset the energy drag
The author sees upside if the conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending stays strong through 2026–27: growth as high as 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. If both risks materialise, 2026 growth might track closer to the baseline.
The September 2026 barometer reads above trend — an observation, not a revision
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer of 9 September 2026 stood at 102.0, up from 101.7 in June; only container shipping (99.6) is below trend. The March forecast was not revised; Hormuz disruptions are expected to show more fully in second-quarter data.
The author's previous forecast undershot: 2.4% expected, 4.6% actual for 2025
In October 2025 the WTO expected 2.4% for 2025; the outturn was 4.6%, as tariffs bit less than predicted and AI-enabling goods surged. Forecasts here can miss by percentage points.
WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update, announced for October 2026 (exact date not published as of 16 September 2026; due date left empty). It will show whether the 1.9% baseline for 2026 is revised.
Source: WTO Secretariat (GTOS)
Date not published
Goods barometer points to resilient trade growth despite headwinds · WTO Secretariat
published 9 Sept 2026 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
The latest barometer reading of 102.0 (represented by the blue line in the above chart) is above both the baseline value of 100 and its previous reading of 101.7 from last June, indicating that merchandise trade is above trend and continues to gain momentum. The negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East continues to be partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).All of the barometer's component indices are above their common baseline value of 100 to varying degrees except for the container shipping index (99.6), which has dipped slightly below trend. The strongest reading was for the electronic components index (104.9), reflecting robust demand for AI-enabling goods. The highly predictive export orders index (103.5) has also strengthened, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the months ahead. The indices representing international air freight (102.8) and agricultural raw materials trade (102.6) have risen firmly above trend while the automotive products index (101.5) has risen slightly above trend.The WTO Secretariat's most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report, issued on 19 March 2026, forecast growth in world merchandise trade volume of 1.9% in 2026 under a baseline scenario and 1.4% under a high-energy-price scenario reflecting headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East. The report also noted that sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth. Year-on-year growth in the volume of world merchandise trade remained positive in the first quarter of 2026. Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the second quarter once figures for this period are available.An update to the GTOS report will be published in October.Middle East conflict weighs further on slowing trade outlook · WTO Secretariat
published 19 Mar 2026 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs. World merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6% in 2027.However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to 1.0 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports. This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4% in the high energy price scenario.WTO economists note there is also some upside potential if the conflict is short-lived and if AI-related spending remains strong throughout 2026 and into 2027, in which case merchandise trade growth could be boosted by 0.5 percentage points leading to growth as high as 2.4% this year and 2.7% next year.It is also possible that the upside and downside risks could both materialize, with energy prices remaining high and AI-enabling goods trade continuing to surge. In this case, merchandise trade growth in 2026 might track closer to the baseline scenario.In 2025, the volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.6% based on data available as of 10 March, which are subject to revision. Trade growth last year was above the 2.4% increase predicted in the October 2025 release of the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics but close to the baseline projection underlying it. The overall negative impact of tariffs in 2025 was less than predicted because of the suspension of new US tariffs until August, the limited amount of retaliation from other economies, and numerous tariff exemptions.The Middle East conflict threatens critical global transport corridors, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing from 138 commercial vessels per day to almost zero. The region accounts for 7.4% of global transport services exports and serves as a key hub connecting Europe, Asia and Africa, but disruptions have cancelled over 40,000 flights and increased transport and insurance costs. While a short-lived conflict would likely result in temporary disruptions with a quick recovery, a protracted crisis could trigger structurally higher fuel and transport costs, reduced transshipment activity and shifts in global travel and trade patterns toward alternative routes.Beyond fuels, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has disrupted fertilizer supplies critical to global agriculture, with around one-third of the world's fertilizer exports normally passing through the waterway. Major agriculture producers like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for 40%, 70% and 35% of their urea imports respectively.Asia is expected to register the fastest merchandise import growth in 2026 (3.3%), followed by Africa (3.2%), South America (2.5%), Europe (1.3%) and the Middle East (1.0%). North America's merchandise imports would remain flat (0.3%) in this scenario while those of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)(1) region would contract (-2.0%). On the merchandise export side, Asia would again have the fastest growth of any region (3.5%) as would South America (3.5%), followed by North America (1.4%), the CIS (1.3%) and Africa (1.2%). On the other hand, merchandise exports of the Middle East would slow sharply (0.6%) while Europe's would continue to stagnate (0.5%).Under the high energy price scenario, net fuel-importing regions such as Asia and Europe would face the biggest cuts in merchandise import growth between the high energy price and baseline scenarios; economies that are net fuel exporters that are still able to export would broadly enjoy more income and therefore more import growth.However, this baseline forecast is under pressure from the conflict in the Middle East. Sustained increases in energy prices could increase risks for global trade, with potential spillovers for food security and cost pressures on consumers and businesses.AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026 · WTO Secretariat
published 7 Oct 2025 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
World merchandise trade volume growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The projection for global GDP growth is 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.Version 1 · prepared 16 Sept 2026, 17:50 UTC · imported 16 Sept 2026, 19:44 UTC · manual update
First version — no changes recorded.