Event · Global · 31 Dec 2025
A year-2025 phenomenon reported by the WTO on 19 March 2026: trade in AI-enabling goods — chips, semiconductors, servers, data transmission equipment — rose 21.9% in value to US$ 4.18 trillion and accounted for 42% of global trade growth in 2025, while representing one-sixth of global trade.
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The WTO Secretariat's March 2026 baseline expects trade growth to normalise to 1.9% in 2026 after the 2025 surge in AI-related products and tariff frontloading. If the conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending remains strong, growth could reach 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.
For whom: Electronics manufacturing and logistics, buyers of computing equipment, exporters in Asia
World · % · Calendar year 2026, until 31 Dec 2026
1.9% for 2026 · Author: WTO Secretariat · Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026 · issued 19 Mar 2026 · cut-off not stated by the author
Limits of what is known: The figures are the WTO Secretariat's own baseline and upside scenario from the 19 March 2026 Global Trade Outlook; the WTO does not publish an information cut-off date. The upside is conditional on both a short conflict and continued AI spending — the author does not separate the two. Barometer readings are observations, not revisions. World Pulse adds no model of its own.
Select a link to see who is affected, the delay and what could break the chain.
Conditional paths published by the author. The difference is shown against the baseline, in the same unit.
Choosing a group changes only the explanation, not the forecast.
Demand for AI-enabling goods stayed robust into September 2026 (electronic components index 104.9, the barometer's strongest component); orders and shipments in this segment are above trend.
7 Oct 20250.5% for 2026
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, October 2025 update · cut-off not stated by the author
19 Mar 20261.9% for 2026current
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026 · cut-off not stated by the author
Reason not established
Outcome pending — data for 2026 has not been published yet
Outcome rule: Compare each forecast with the WTO Secretariat's own first published estimate of world merchandise trade volume growth for the same period in the next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics release that reports it (for 2026: expected spring 2027), same geography (world) and unit (% y/y, volume). Error = observed − forecast in percentage points. Later WTO revisions become new observations with vintage 'revised'. Rule abs-diff-v1. · abs-diff-v1
Forecasts, observations and versions of this analysis by date. Points are not connected — nothing is known between them.
Normalisation after the 2025 surge and frontloading
The baseline itself assumes trade normalises in 2026 after the surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs; in October 2025 the author expected higher tariffs and policy uncertainty to unwind some earlier frontloading.
The Middle East conflict and energy prices pull the other way
If crude oil and LNG prices remain elevated throughout 2026, the author expects trade growth of just 1.4%; the upside requires the conflict to be short-lived as well as continued AI spending.
Tariffs and policy uncertainty remain the key downside risk
In October 2025 the author named the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty to more economies and sectors as the key downside risk, with sustained AI-related trade as the upside.
WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update, announced for October 2026 (exact date not published as of 16 September 2026; due date left empty), and the next Goods Trade Barometer reading for electronic components.
Source: WTO Secretariat (GTOS, Goods Trade Barometer)
Date not published
Goods barometer points to resilient trade growth despite headwinds · WTO Secretariat
published 9 Sept 2026 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
The latest barometer reading of 102.0 (represented by the blue line in the above chart) is above both the baseline value of 100 and its previous reading of 101.7 from last June, indicating that merchandise trade is above trend and continues to gain momentum. The negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East continues to be partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other goods linked to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).All of the barometer's component indices are above their common baseline value of 100 to varying degrees except for the container shipping index (99.6), which has dipped slightly below trend. The strongest reading was for the electronic components index (104.9), reflecting robust demand for AI-enabling goods. The highly predictive export orders index (103.5) has also strengthened, pointing to continued growth in merchandise trade in the months ahead. The indices representing international air freight (102.8) and agricultural raw materials trade (102.6) have risen firmly above trend while the automotive products index (101.5) has risen slightly above trend.Middle East conflict weighs further on slowing trade outlook · WTO Secretariat
published 19 Mar 2026 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs. World merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6% in 2027.However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to 1.0 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports. This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4% in the high energy price scenario.WTO economists note there is also some upside potential if the conflict is short-lived and if AI-related spending remains strong throughout 2026 and into 2027, in which case merchandise trade growth could be boosted by 0.5 percentage points leading to growth as high as 2.4% this year and 2.7% next year.It is also possible that the upside and downside risks could both materialize, with energy prices remaining high and AI-enabling goods trade continuing to surge. In this case, merchandise trade growth in 2026 might track closer to the baseline scenario.In value terms, trade in AI-enabling goods increased by 21.9% year-on-year, rising to US$ 4.18 trillion in 2025 from US$ 3.43 trillion in the previous year. These products accounted for 42% of total global trade growth in 2025, despite representing only one-sixth of global trade. Notably, key AI-enabling goods such as chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment are exempt from most new tariffs.Asia is expected to register the fastest merchandise import growth in 2026 (3.3%), followed by Africa (3.2%), South America (2.5%), Europe (1.3%) and the Middle East (1.0%). North America's merchandise imports would remain flat (0.3%) in this scenario while those of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)(1) region would contract (-2.0%). On the merchandise export side, Asia would again have the fastest growth of any region (3.5%) as would South America (3.5%), followed by North America (1.4%), the CIS (1.3%) and Africa (1.2%). On the other hand, merchandise exports of the Middle East would slow sharply (0.6%) while Europe's would continue to stagnate (0.5%).AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026 · WTO Secretariat
published 7 Oct 2025 · retrieved 16 Sept 2026, 17:19 UTC
World merchandise trade volume growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The projection for global GDP growth is 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.AI-related goods-including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment-drove nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year-on-year in value terms. Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications. Asia's export performance was strong in AI-related products, consistent with the worldwide surge in investment in this sector.Higher tariff rates and elevated trade policy uncertainty are set to eventually unwind some of the effects of earlier frontloading.WTO economists highlight that the key downside risk to the forecast is the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty to more economies and sectors. On the upside, sustained growth in trade for AI-related goods and services could provide a medium-term boost to global trade.Version 1 · prepared 16 Sept 2026, 17:50 UTC · imported 16 Sept 2026, 19:44 UTC · manual update
First version — no changes recorded.