Forecast trace · verifiable lifecycle of one forecast
The question is stored in Russian (the original language); no translation is available yet — the original is shown.
forecast id c3a812513afa4a28b7971be117a2b53e · question id c3a812513afa4a28b7971be117a2b53e:q
No outcome recorded yet: the question is open until the deadline and nothing is inferred before the resolver writes it.
The outcome says what happened. It does not say whether the forecast was good: forecast quality is a separate question, answered below only by the persisted score.
No score: the forecast has no final yes/no outcome.
Quality is read from the persisted proper score only, never from the outcome label: the same «did not occur» outcome yields different scores for different frozen probabilities.
An individual proper score of the frozen probability against the recorded outcome. Skill is defined only as a cohort aggregate against a baseline (Brier Skill Score), never per row — this number is not a skill claim.
Entries are ordered by the time each record appeared. Later checks, resolutions and revisions carry their own timestamps and never alter the earlier snapshot they follow.
Question opened
c3a812513afa4a28b7971be117a2b53e:qProbability frozen: 50%
c3a812513afa4a28b7971be117a2b53e:s091 resolver checks
An external registry — an arbiter independent of us.
What would refute this: no fixed version appears in OSV before the deadline
Outcome not yet resolved