Forecast trace · verifiable lifecycle of one forecast
The question is stored in Russian (the original language); no translation is available yet — the original is shown.
forecast id 8732fd69bae64ce5bcb10b61635f3d93 · question id 8732fd69bae64ce5bcb10b61635f3d93:q
Did not occur
Recorded 18 Jul, 04:29 UTC by resolver meme_bridge v1 · knowledge no later than 18 Jul, 04:29 UTC (upper bound: backfilled from the legacy resolution time) · resolver meme_bridge v1
The outcome says what happened. It does not say whether the forecast was good: forecast quality is a separate question, answered below only by the persisted score.
No persisted score for this forecast yet: the scoring ledger currently covers other forecast families, and nothing is recomputed here.
Quality is read from the persisted proper score only, never from the outcome label: the same «did not occur» outcome yields different scores for different frozen probabilities.
An individual proper score of the frozen probability against the recorded outcome. Skill is defined only as a cohort aggregate against a baseline (Brier Skill Score), never per row — this number is not a skill claim.
Entries are ordered by the time each record appeared. Later checks, resolutions and revisions carry their own timestamps and never alter the earlier snapshot they follow.
Question opened
8732fd69bae64ce5bcb10b61635f3d93:qProbability frozen: 5%
8732fd69bae64ce5bcb10b61635f3d93:s0Resolution r0: Did not occurcurrent verdict
Our own internal observation — not an external source.
What would refute this: no link to a news trend is recorded by our linker before the deadline (its throughput is budget-limited)
Resolver note (not independent evidence): дедлайн прошёл — связь с новостным трендом не появилась
8732fd69bae64ce5bcb10b61635f3d93:r0